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Peter Mansoor, History

Posted on | April 21, 2010 | 1,704 views | Comments Off

What is the US plan in Afghanistan?
The most important goal that the Obama administration has set is to create enough stability in Afghanistan that Al-Qaida can never again use it as a base of operations. To achieve this goal, the administration strategy is to increase the number of forces in order to reverse recent Taliban gains by protecting the Afghan people from insurgent violence and intimidation. As the Taliban comes to see they cannot win the conflict militarily, the organization will be more amenable to negotiating a political solution to end the violence. It remains to be seen whether or not the strategy will be effective, but I think it is clear that the only viable way to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table in good faith is to give them a setback on the field of battle. By securing the Afghan people, Afghan and multinational forces can make it difficult for the insurgents to find support among the populace. Another important component of the strategy is to form a strategic relationship with Pakistan to convince that nation to eliminate the sanctuaries enjoyed by the Taliban in Waziristan and in the Federally Administered Tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border.

What is the progress of the current conflict?
US and Afghan forces have conducted operations in Helmand Province in order to reverse Taliban gains there and to limit Taliban access to money coming out of the opium trade. The latest battle was in Marjah, which was a Taliban stronghold for a number of years. US Marines and Afghan troops have now brought Marjah under the control of the Afghan government. The next major operation will be this summer in Kandahar, the spiritual heart of the Taliban movement. As US and Afghan forces challenge the Taliban in their sanctuaries, the fighting will become more difficult and bloody. Success in Kandahar will be a significant blow to the Taliban, which is why the insurgents are reinforcing the area. Casualties are likely to rise this summer, but that’s the price required to erase Taliban gains and force them to the negotiating table.

Some of the lower-tier Taliban groups have entered into negotiations with the Karzai government, but the main groups haven’t yet reached out other than to say they would be willing to negotiate once foreign forces give a timeline for their departure from the country. This is a propaganda ploy rather than a viable negotiating strategy to end the conflict. If foreign forces left Afghanistan, the Taliban would have no incentive to come to terms with the government in Kabul. A viable peace deal has to be inked while multinational forces are still in the country.

How much longer do you see conflict?
Years. The conflict has been ongoing for more than three decades now and is unlikely to end anytime soon. When the Communists staged a coup in 1978 that overturned the monarchy that had traditionally ruled Afghanistan, they upset a carefully balanced social and political structure. The result was civil war and chaos, an internecine conflict that has been truly horrific for the Afghan people and which continues to play out to this day. I think it’s too early to tell what kind of Afghanistan will emerge from the violence. There are many actors that have a role in ending the war, most importantly the Pakistani government. As long as the Taliban enjoy sanctuaries across the border in Pakistan, it will be difficult to convince the insurgents to end their struggle. As soon as Pakistan becomes a full partner in this regard, the Taliban will have little choice but to enter into a political arrangement if they want a share of power in Afghanistan.

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