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Peter Mansoor, Department of History

Posted on | May 4, 2011 | 949 views | Comments Off

What does the death of Osama bin Laden mean to the US?

It’s a huge symbolic victory as it shows that America as a great power will go to extraordinary lengths to avenge the deaths of its citizens. Our promise after 9/11 was Osama bin Laden would pay for his crimes against humanity. His demise sends the message that no matter how long it takes, America will make good on its word.

Osama bin Laden’s death also is a substantive achievement in the war against al-Qaeda. There doesn’t appear to be another leader in al-Qaeda with his charisma and ability to attract followers. The No. 2 al-Qaeda operative, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is a good manager but he doesn’t appear to have the kind of following that could make him a unifying leader of the organization. One of two things could happen at this point: Another leader with the stature of Osama bin Laden could step forward or al-Qaeda could splinter. I think the latter is the more likely possibility.

What happens if al-Qaeda splinters?

The war against al-Qaeda will continue, as bin Laden’s death is just one step in a very long-term and ongoing process. A splintered al-Qaeda may cause a diffusion of our counterterrorism efforts in that not one single person would be the focus of our intelligence.

How would you qualify the success of the intelligence community?

This raid shows that our intelligence capabilities have improved enormously since 9/11. We have finally achieved synergy of effort between the CIA and military that enables these kinds of operations to succeed. The key piece of information that led to bin Laden came out of Guantamano Bay. After 9/11 we captured an al-Qaeda operative who in interrogation indicated there was a courier who bin Laden trusted. We then worked to identify that courier, which finally happened around 2007. We then had to locate him, which happened last fall. In the ensuing interval we refined the targeting package, prepared and rehearsed the mission and continued surveillance on the compound in Pakistan. We had to make sure the targets were at home on the night of the raid. This type of operation is a one-shot deal because if we execute the raid and the targets are not home, we have tipped our hand. Incidentally, after all the discussion over closing Guantanamo Bay, it is ironic the key piece of information came out of that facility.

I think bin Laden’s death was a great achievement for the American intelligence community and the Joint Special Operations Command, and obviously it provided a bit of catharsis to the American people as well. Most Americans realize this isn’t the end of the war against al-Qaeda. However, as Winston Churchill said of another war, “Maybe this is the end of the beginning.”

It also shows that the level of intelligence we enjoy in Pakistan is not all that great that it took us a long time to develop the kind of intelligence we needed to target a single individual. But it also says the Pakistanis weren’t looking that hard for him either, given bin Laden’s compound was 1,000 feet away from a Pakistani military academy. While Osama’s foot soldiers were out in the caves, he was in a luxury compound near the Pakistani capital, so that says something about bin Laden’s leadership.

What does this raid say about our relationship with Pakistan, where bin Laden was killed?

This is a crucial question because we did not coordinate this operation with the Pakistani government. There isn’t a high degree of trust between the United States and Pakistan. Killing or capturing Osama bin Laden was the president’s No. 1 national security goal and he wasn’t going to take a chance someone in the Pakistani military or government would leak details of the raid.

The raid also shows the level of access we enjoy in Pakistan is not all that great as it took us a long time to develop the kind of intelligence we needed to target a single individual. It also shows the Pakistanis weren’t looking all that hard for him either, given that bin Laden’s compound was 1,000 feet away from a Pakistani military academy. Incidentally, while bin Laden’s foot soldiers were out in the hinterlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan, he was holed up in a luxury compound near the Pakistani capital, which says something about his leadership.

How does this raid affect US operations in Afghanistan?

Now that bin Laden is dead, President Obama has an opening to start reducing our troop presence in Afghanistan as he can claim that our primary mission, defeating al-Qaeda, is close to completion. Although US, NATO and Afghan counterinsurgency operations have set back the Taliban, they remain undefeated. It remains to be seen what our strategy will be in Afghanistan going forward, which affects to a great extent what our relationship with Pakistan will be as well.

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