Jon Krosnick

Applied science

Ohio State research may help change outcome of California election

Sometimes faculty members have a difficult time explaining how their research might affect our everyday lives.

But that's not the case for Jon Krosnick, Ohio State professor of psychology and political science. His research helped decide -- at least temporarily -- the winner of the mayor's race in Compton, Calif.

On Feb. 8, a Superior Court judge in California removed Compton's sitting mayor and replaced him with the previous incumbent, who had seemingly lost in a very close election last June.

The judge's decision rested heavily on court testimony by Krosnick, who testified about his research on the "primacy effect" in elections: specifically, how a candidate attracts more votes simply by having his name listed first on the ballot.

In the Compton mayor's race, the challenger's name was illegally placed first on the ballot. Krosnick testified that, based on his research, challenger Eric Perrodin received at least 306 votes -- and probably more -- based purely on the fact his name was illegally listed first. Perrodin beat incumbent Omar Bradley by 281 votes.

In her 33-page ruling, the Superior Court judge cited several problems with the election, but singled out Krosnick's testimony as particularly important to her ruling. (On Feb. 26, an appeals court judge blocked, at least temporarily, the ruling in Superior Court. A final decision by the appeals court on who should be mayor is pending.)

The decision made Krosnick at least semi-famous in star-studded Los Angeles, with interviews and stories in the Los Angeles Times and on local radio stations and the Fox television network.

Krosnick says he is very gratified to see his research make such a public impact.

"I love the fact that this work is of some value in helping to address real problems and, in this case, to making democracy work better," he said. "I must admit that I've always had an interest in studying phenomena that people would care about, and studying it in ways that people would find useful."

Krosnick's role in this case came about quickly and unexpectedly. A University of Southern California law student who was working on this case for the losing incumbent found an article on the primacy effect in a 1972 law journal. She contacted the author, who referred her to Krosnick. Lawyers for the losing candidate contacted Krosnick in late November -- and he just happened to be in California on a research project. He was able to prepare his testimony with just two days notice.

"Normally, testifying in a major court case with such short notice would be ridiculous," he said. "But I knew the literature already so I only had to learn about the specifics of this election."

One reason that it was so easy for Krosnick to prepare was that he has been studying the primacy effect since 1982. He and other researchers have found that being first on a list is an advantage in a number of different areas. In surveys, for example, some people are going to pick the first provided answer simply because it is listed first, Krosnick said. Based on this research, most pollsters vary the order of possible answers to questions during their surveys.

But Krosnick is particularly passionate about how the primacy effect can alter the course of elections, as it did in the Compton mayor's race.

In a 1998 study published in Public Opinion Quarterly, Krosnick and his colleagues analyzed precinct-by-precinct vote returns for all the races in the 1992 elections held in the three largest Ohio counties. The results showed that candidates received an average of 2.33 percent more votes when their names appeared first on the ballots compared to when their names were listed last.

The study was possible because Ohio law mandates that candidates' names be rotated from precinct to precinct to eliminate the candidate name order bias. In the Compton case, the problem occurred because the wrong candidate -- based on California law -- had his name listed first on all the ballots. In Krosnick's view, the best situation would have candidate names rotated on ballots so no one candidate has an advantage.

"In my opinion, any election that involves a single name order isn't as democratic as it should be. Yet this is just what happens in most of the country."

And the results may matter beyond local races. The primacy effect may have played a role in electing George W. Bush as president, Krosnick said. By Florida law, Bush's name was listed first on all ballots in the state, "and that almost certainly allowed him to win that state, given the closeness of the contest," Krosnick said. Florida ended up being the key state that decided the presidential race.

Krosnick said he has testified one other time on candidate name order effects. That concerned the 1990 race for Ohio attorney general. In that case, Krosnick argued that the candidate name order did not have a large enough effect to influence the outcome of the election, and the Ohio Supreme Court agreed.

Krosnick is more than happy to talk about his research on the primacy effect -- in or out of court.

"My personal mission here is to get this research visible, because I really do think it is stunning how unfair the system is around the country. I'm happy to use every opportunity to let people know what this literature shows."

Tuition plan approved; funding proposal adjusted

Ohio State's Board of Trustees on March 1 approved a tuition plan that allows the University to progress toward its goal of academic excellence and reposition its overall fee structure, and recognizes its role as the state's flagship university.

The plan, which derives from principles established after discussions between the office of Gov. Bob Taft and presidents of Ohio's 13 public universities, includes a 9 percent increase for current students and an additional fee of $474 for new students beginning summer quarter. Current students will pay $5,217, while new students -- freshmen and transfers -- will pay $5,691, or a total increase of 18.9 percent.

With this agreement, the University will continue assessing differential fees for new students over the next two to three years to permit the full implementation of the University's tuition proposal announced at its Feb. 1 Board of Trustees meeting. That plan had called for new students to pay an additional $1,200. The agreement also assumes no further state budget cuts.

"Implementing our tuition strategy over two or three years rather than in one year as we originally proposed will allow us to make continued progress toward academic excellence, although not as quickly as we would like and not without additional and painful budget trimming," President Brit Kirwan said.

He said the new proposal reflects recognition by state officials that the University deserves special consideration regarding its tuition level. Other universities were limited to additional fees of $300 for entering students. Kirwan noted that the key reason behind the two-tiered approach is to reposition Ohio State's tuition to be more consistent with its role as the state's flagship university -- key to the state's economic development -- and its aspiration to become one of the nation's finest public teaching and research universities.

"I want to thank Gov. Taft and legislative leaders for granting Ohio State additional flexibility beyond that extended to other IUC (Inter-University Council) institutions," Kirwan said.

Despite the increases, Ohio State will remain affordable when compared to other public universities in Ohio and the Big Ten. For example, if Ohio schools increase tuition by amounts already announced, or by 6 percent for those still undecided, Ohio State will rank eighth out of 13 for current students and sixth for new students. If Big Ten tuitions go up by percentages already announced, Ohio State's fees will rank sixth overall.

Kirwan also reiterated the University's commitment to preserving access and affordability by increasing grants and scholarships to assure that no admitted student is turned away from Ohio State for financial reasons.

The revised tuition formula is not without challenges, however. Ohio State must fill a new $6 million gap without compromising education for students at the University, said Executive Vice President and Provost Edward J. Ray. Ray and Senior Vice President for Business and Finance William J. Shkurti outlined their revised budget recommendations for trustees at the March 1 meeting.

Ray said that, in keeping with the principles of the Academic Plan, resources will be committed to providing above market-level average compensation increases to faculty and staff and to continuing to make improvements in student life both inside and outside the classroom.

"Ohio State will maintain its unique standing as a comprehensive public institution that offers both academic excellence and affordability," Ray said.

The lower new-student differential fee resulted in a corresponding reduction of $2 million needed for financial aid next fiscal year, meaning Ohio State needs $71 million in resources next year for the Columbus campus -- compared to the $73 million identified in a funding proposal presented to trustees in February. The University has identified $65 million to meet that $71 million need: a total of $36 million in cuts and reallocations by the central administration and all colleges and vice presidential units; $24 million from current student undergraduate tuition and a planned 5 percent increase in tuition for graduate and professional students; and $5 million from the new-student differential tuition increase.

Shkurti said that, of the remaining $6 million, officials recommend the following modifications: an additional $1 million available from increased winter quarter enrollments; $700,000 made available by implementing tuition increases in summer quarter rather than autumn; $500,000 from an additional increase in the surcharge paid by out-of-state students; $400,000 in charges to regional campuses for courses taught to their students on the Columbus campus; and $1 million by redirecting unrestricted gift money to general funds scholarships. That still leaves a need for $2.4 million; those additional revenues have not been identified.

"Additional cuts to academic programs are not recommended," Shkurti said. Under the $36 million in cuts and reallocations planned across the Columbus campus, 426 employment positions are expected to be eliminated, including 51 currently filled full-time posts, he said. Of the total, 85 are faculty positions, 214 are staff, and 127 are graduate assistantships and temporary/seasonal positions.

Shkurti noted that revenue projections are preliminary, and that a balanced budget for fiscal year 2003 will be presented to the board before June 30.